An inspection on the quality of the data and a comparison with other countries

Data collection

The data is collected in a systematic way: The choices above where checked below to see if that choice is consistent with the observed data.

Data analysis

Data analysis of each branch

For each branch the data was analysed in a uniform way.

Data analysis on the distribution tmrca

The next diagram shows the distribution of tmrca of the different branches.

Interpretation

The tmrca in this diagram represents the change from population bottleneck to population growth. It is likely that it is the transition from an area where the change for survival are small to a place where population growth for this group is large. The value is probably close to the arrival time in Eastern Europe, where the larger than local population growth was possible. In exceptional cases it is possible that a large group (with family relations) arrivred in Eastern Europe. In that case the calculated tmrca is a little earlier than the arrival time in Eastern Europe.

Data analysis on the tmrca as function of size of population


The first diagram shows the relation of logarithm of the size of the group (in our dataset) as function of tmrca. In this diagram the relation is fitted with a linear fit. The best fit is given as log (size) = 0.0031 * time (in units of ybp). The result of the fit is shown in the second plot. It gives the same data, with a linear scale for size of the group (in our dataset).

Interpretation

The amount of descendants of a branch is larger if the first ancestor arrived early. In the case that a constant population growth is present (constant in time and equal for all branches), one expects a linear relation between logarithm of size as function of tmrca in years before present (ybp). Due to the large statistical uncertainties in tmrca (and for the small groups also in size) the error range of the relation can not be determined accurately. The value of 0.0031 gives an average population growth of 0.3% per year (which is 9.7% in 30 years and factor of 1.36 in 100 years). These values are smaller than calculated from the overall data. This is not a surprise. The amount of male lines in the first years after the mrca have a large statistical impact on the results. Some will have no male lines, some less than average and some will have more male line descendants than average. A simulation might confirm the lower value for the population growth.
These diagrams confirm that, in general, the larger branches arrived earlier in the area where the population growth was high.

Data analysis on the tmrca as function of size of population

Data analysis on the distribution in countries

In this section we analyse the data on the reported country of origin. In the first diagram they are ordered in order of size.

Interpretation

The countries with the highes number of reported people are from well-known Eastern-European Ashkenazi countries. Number six in order of size is Germany; in the second diagram the first 9 pies are omitted, so the smaller countries are visible. Number 10 in size is United Kingdom (36 persons), 12 is United States (30 persons).
By statistical coïncidence we would In this page the data is presented and checked to see if we have systematic effects in the analysis.


The observed distribution of branches.

A comparison with other countries


The diagram below gives the distribution of 4 countries in comparison with the percentages of the Ashekenazi Jews. The distribution by branch gives the best view of the originating area. The distribution by population is strongly influenced by the order of arriving in the area where the population rate was high (Polish-Lithuanian area).